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Central Banks Armada On Deck: A Look At The Coming Busy Week
We start our week ahead preview with the main event of the week: the FOMC on Wednesday, and the ensuing press conference from Chair Powell, which according to DB’s Jim Reid will dictate where yields and risk trade for days, if not weeks ahead.
In their preview, DB’s US economists highlight that the Committee is likely to update their economic projections with a substantial upward revision to expected growth, a lower unemployment forecasts, and a modestly higher inflation trajectory following the passage of President Biden’s $1.9tn Covid19 relief package. Despite this, Chair Powell is likely to emphasize that significant uncertainties remain and that the recovery has a long way to go, particularly the labor market. Powell is also likely to reiterate that any discussion of tapering is “premature” and that it will likely be “some time” before the Committee can even assess if their goals have been achieved. On the topic of rising yields – US 10yr yields are up around 60bps since the last FOMC meeting in late January – he will likely once again emphasize that the Fed has the tools to deal with issues as they arise and that they would respond to disruptive or persistent tightening of financial conditions as necessary. It’s fair to say it’s a pivotal meeting though.
Meanwhile in the UK, the Bank of England will present their policy decision on Thursday, and much like with the Fed this week and the ECB last week much of the focus will be on how the BOE interprets the recent sharp rise in yields. They are likely to try and strike a similar balance between the market pricing in an improving outlook and not wanting financial conditions to tighten excessively. The market is not expecting a change to either the policy rate or asset purchases.
The final major central bank decision comes from the Bank of Japan on Friday, where economists believe it will adjust its present policy framework after the release of the results of its ongoing policy assessment. They see the meeting as more unpredictable following Governor Kuroda’s comments on 5 March, but they believe the bank will consider more effective equity ETF purchasing along with measures to alleviate the adverse side effects of its negative interest rate policy.
The week will also see monetary policy decisions from the central banks of Russia, Brazil, Norway and Turkey. Russia is set to keep rates steady, but could hint at tightening financial conditions. On the other hand, Brazil is expected to start a tightening cycle.
On the economic front, attention will fall on retail sales, industrial production, housing data, CPI inflation across the Euro area and Canada. In Emerging Markets, there.
Courtesy of DB here is a day by day preview of the coming week:
Monday March 15
- Data: China February industrial production, new home prices and fixed assets ex rural, retail sales and surveyed jobless rate; US March Empire manufacturing index
Tuesday March 16
- Data: Japan final January industrial production and February trade balance; France final February CPI; Germany and Euro Area March ZEW survey; US February industrial production, retail sales, import and export prices, capacity utilization and March NAHB housing market index
- Central Banks: BOJ Kuroda speaks at Fin/Sum 2021
- Earnings: Volkswagen, Lennar, Crowdstrike
Wednesday March 17
- Data: Euro Area February EU27 new car registrations, January construction outputs and final February CPI; US February building permits, housing starts and weekly MBA mortgage applications
- Central Banks: Monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Brazil
- Earnings: BMW, Lukoil, Cintas Corp
Thursday March 18
- Data: Euro Area January trade balance and 4Q labour costs; US weekly initial jobless claims, continuing claims and February leading index; Japan Feb National CPI
- Central Banks: Monetary policy decisions from Bank of England, Norges Bank and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey; BOE’s Cunliffe and Haldane speak; ECB’s Schnabel and Guindos speak
- Earnings: Accenture, Dollar General, Nike, FedEx, Enel
Friday March 19
- Data: UK March GfK consumer confidence, February public finances and central government NCR; Germany February PPI; France final 4Q wages
- Central Banks: Monetary policy decision from the Bank of Japan and Bank of Russia
- Earnings: Carnival Corp
* * *
Finally, as Goldman notes, the key economic data release this week is the retail sales report on Tuesday. The March FOMC meeting is this week, with the release of the statement at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. There are no other major speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, reflecting the FOMC blackout period.
Monday, March 15
- 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, March (consensus +14.5, last +12.1)
Tuesday, March 16
- 08:30 AM Retail sales, February (GS -2.0%, consensus -0.5%, last +5.3%); Retail sales ex-auto, February (GS -2.0%, consensus +0.1%, last +5.9%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, February (GS -2.5%, consensus -0.5%, last +6.1%); Core retail sales, February (GS -2.7%, consensus -0.9%, last +6.0%): We estimate that core retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials) retrenched by 2.7% in February (mom sa). High-frequency data suggest a sharp pullback in retail goods spending following the January spike, which itself reflected the disbursement of the $600 stimulus checks and the reinstatement of unemployment top-up payments. We also believe winter storms in the South and resulting power outages weighed on retail spending in that region. We expect a slightly smaller decline in the ex-auto ex-gas category (-2.5%), reflecting flattish restaurant spending. We estimate a 2.0% drop in both the headline and ex-auto measures, reflecting higher gasoline prices but a pullback in auto sales.
- 08:30 AM Import price index, February (consensus +1.1%, last +1.4%)
- 09:15 AM Industrial production, February (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.9%); Manufacturing production, February (GS -0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +1.0%); Capacity utilization, February (GS 75.3%, consensus 75.5%, last 75.6%): We estimate industrial production rose by 0.2% in February, reflecting a pullback in auto manufacturing but continued strength in other categories. We estimate capacity utilization declined by 0.3pp to 75.3%.
- 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, March (consensus 84, last 84)
Wednesday, March 17
- 08:30 AM Housing starts, February (GS flat, consensus -1.6%, last -6.0%); Building permits, February (consensus -7.2%, last +10.4%): We estimate housing starts remained unchanged in February. Our forecast incorporates higher permits and a smaller virus drag, but a sizeable negative impact from winter storms.
- 02:00 PM FOMC statement, March 16-17 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, the key question for the March FOMC meeting is where participants will project inflation and the funds rate in 2023, and what this reveals about the reaction function. While many investors will watch for any pushback on front-end pricing from Chair Powell in his post-meeting press conference, we think they will be disappointed. Powell could reiterate and clarify the scattered hints that Fed officials have provided about the taper timeline.
Thursday, March 18
- 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, March (GS 23.0, consensus 24.0, last 23.1): We estimate that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index edged down 0.1pt to 23.0 in March. While we believe the medium-term industrial outlook remains strong, the level of the survey is already somewhat elevated. We also note a possible drag from the late-February winter storms in the South, which may have adversely affected US manufacturing and automotive supply chains in subsequent weeks.
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 13 (GS 710k, consensus 700k, last 712k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 6 (consensus 4,070k, last 4,144k): We estimate initial jobless claims decreased to 710k in the week ended March 13.
Friday, March 19
- There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
Source: BofA, DB, Goldman
Mon, 03/15/2021 – 09:45